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Over the last several months, the U.S. equity markets have staged impressive rebounds to recoup most of the losses that occurred in late February and March. After a peak-to-tough decline of approximately 37% for the Dow, 30% for the Nasdaq, and 34% for the S&P 500, the major indexes have rallied approximately 38%, 40%, and…
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Over the last several weeks we have seen a dramatic turn of events in the financial markets. After a relatively calm start to 2020, the current environment has been characterized by uncertainty, fear, nervousness, and high volatility surrounding the COVID-19 outbreak and its resultant impact on the economy and financial markets. Despite our best efforts…
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Raskob Kambourian Financial Advisors would like to congratulate Phillip B. Kaiser, CFA, CMT, CFP® on his outstanding performance in the Financial Forecasting Challenge hosted by the CFA® Societies of the Western U.S. on the forecasting site Good Judgment® Open (www.gjopen.com). The objective of the yearlong competition was to accurately predict the outcome of economic and…
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When I was younger, one of my favorite activities during a sick day or school shutdown day was watching game shows on television. I enjoyed the enthusiastic contestants, fun games, and high stakes on the line (high stakes for me at the time). A couple of my favorite shows were Family Feud and The Price…
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I was cleaning out my closet this weekend and happened to come across some old books. In addition to accounting and economics textbooks long forgotten, I came across some paperbacks spanning a range of business topics. Included in the mix was the book Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco by Bryan Burrough…
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It has been said there are two certainties in life: death and taxes. These days another certainty can be added to the list: a reduction in the federal funds rate at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, futures traders are pricing in a 100% probability that…
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In recent months there has been much debate about whether the U.S. economy is heading for a recession. While there is no denying a slowdown is taking place, we believe the U.S. economy remains healthy and the probability of a recession is low. Our assessment is based on a review of the factors affecting the…
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Given the equity market volatility over the last several months, emotions are running high and there is a sense of panic in the air. After reaching all-time highs this year, the major U.S. equity market indexes have done an about face and have declined by double digit percentages from those peaks. The causes of the…
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Inflation has been pretty benign over the last 20 years, right? The U.S. Consumer Price Index has ranged from negative 0.4% in 2009 to a high of 3.8% in the awful 2008 economic year. In 13 of those 20 years, the CPI was below 2.5%, which is hardly comparable to the double-digit inflation rates that…
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Bull markets climb a “wall of worry.” The “wall of worry” consists of various fears and challenges that either alone or in conjunction with each other would seemingly bring an end to a bull market. After a relatively tranquil 2017, this year has been characterized by numerous fears and challenges. Fears surrounding trade and tariffs,…